Should I start Larry over Fred?  How about Stan?  Is there a simple means of knowing who to start on a week by week basis?

No.  There is no magic formula.  But there are some guidelines to follow that may help you make up your mind.  Remember that these are not rules because each of these has dozens of contrary examples.  But use these when in doubt, because more than 50% of the time they are correct:

- Always start your stars unless they are on a bye week or hurt/out.  I don't care if your starting quarterback has a tough match up.  Big players show up for big games.  In fact, they tend to step it up.

- Dance with the girl you brought.  If you drafted a top running back in the second round, don't sit him thinking your 10th round pick will have a better game.  There is a reason you drafted him that highly.  Similar to the first guideline, this rule is geared more toward early in the season before others have emerged.

- When two players are evenly matched, go with the one on Monday Night Football, especially in a rivalry game if possible.  Kickers on Monday night tend to do very well.

- On Thanksgiving, start a Lion or someone playing against the Lions.  Weird stuff happens in Detroit late in November.  Not so much the case in Dallas.

- Defenses on the road don't do as well on the road as they do at home.  Most defensive scoring is in front of the home crowd.  Also, consider that most home teams win, so the road team throws a lot in the 4th quarter to catch up.  All those passes mean more sacks and the possibility of interceptions and fumbles.

- Road teams throw.  Home teams run.  Quarterbacks typically have more success on the road while running backs tend to do better at home.  Again, this is because the home team typically does better, and can grind things out on the ground, while a losing road team must throw to catch up.

- A guy who scores 3 or more touchdowns one week will not do well the next week.  That's because the next team's game plan will account heavily for him, leaving others as a more viable option.  But you might have to be high to sit a guy capable of scoring 3 in one week. 

- Home teams tend to be more aggressive, while road teams play more conservatively.  This effects kickers who lose out when an aggressive coach goes for on 4th and 1 at home who would have otherwise kicked a 49 yard field goal on the road.  Road kickers advantage is balanced out by the home team scoring more often.  In effect, don't favor the home kicker if you might otherwise do so.

- Backup quarterbacks LOVE #1 receivers.  When the starting quarterback goes down, there is often and rightfully a sense of fear.  But if you have the #1 receiver on that team, start him anyway.  Backups are less experienced and will tend to focus on 1 guy. 

- Start a kicker in a dome.  Avoid kickers in San Francisco.  Bad cross winds there.

- Don't ignore trends.  If you have a guy who has scored 3 weeks in a row, figure out a way to get him into your lineup.  If you have a marginal player who hasn't scored in 3 weeks, you need to improve.  But if your top pick struggles for 3 weeks, you might want to give him one more week before pulling the plug.  But don't wait too long.

- Avoid receivers but not backs in bad weather games, especially extreme cold.

- DON'T go fishing.  Don't sit a regular because you've got a good feeling about someone else.  Odds are your feelings are wrong.

- DON'T Flip Flop.  I'm the worst offender. When you go back and forth between 2 or more players on given weeks, you run the risk of starting both at the wrong time.  Choose your lineup and stick with it until you have to do something else.  If you can't stand having someone on your bench and you have to do something - trade him, upgrade somewhere else.

And the #1 guideline, the one I always live by:

- How will you feel Sunday night?  Consider how you will feel after you've made your choice and it didn't work out.  You'll feel down, but can you at least say you made the right decision given the circumstances?  The best way to explain this is through example.  You have Peyton and Eli Manning.  Peyton is playing a good defense and Eli is playing a bad one.  There is a chance Eli will out produce Peyton.  If you start Peyton, and Eli performs better, you could at least argue that Peyton is your quarterback and starting him was the correct decision, even though it didn't work out.  But if you start Eli over Peyton and you're wrong, now you look like an idiot in front of the entire league.  You'll not only be down, but possibly suicidal for making a dumb decision.  Just ask yourself - which start could potentially make me feel worse, and go with the other. 

And one other thing to keep in mind, fantasy experts don't know anything more than you do.  I don't care if it's fanball or cbssportsline, footballguys, or 411.  No one can tell you if Shaun Alexander or LaDainian Tomlinson will score more touchdowns on any given weekend, and they are lying to you if they tell you they can.  Experts can give you opinions based on some factors listed above, as well as trends.  But all we do is make educated guesses.  And guesses, no matter how educated can be wrong.  Free sites are here to help.  Pay sites are here to make money while they do it.  But there is nothing that says that Adam Kaplan knows more about fantasy football than you or I.